R. VP pick: Sarah Palin

[hermionesviolin]

I said to kurukami this morning:

when I first heard the possibility on CNN this morning I thought, "Well she's young and attractive and has solid conservative credentials ... but she's young and halfway through her first term as governor; can McCain continue slamming Obama's lack of experience with as much credibility now that he's picked such a young inexperienced person as a #2?"  I mean obviously McCain doesn't expect to die in office, but still.

I feel like her main purpose is to draw the supposed disaffected Hillary voters.  And I have a really low opinion of the Left, but even I have difficulty being so cynical as to think that there are any significant number of Dems who are enough about Clinton not winning the nomination would actually vote for a Republican (esp. after Clinton told them to rally behind Obama) nor cynical enough to think that a female running mate would be a tipping point for a significant number of women voters (esp. Dem ones).

[Edit: Wow, I rewrote that last sentence midstream, and it shows. Sorry about that. It should of course say, "any significant number of Dems who are upset enough about Clinton not winning the nomination that they would actually vote for a Republican."]

However, Ian emailed a bunch of us while I was at lunch:

Subject: the case for Palin

My prediction:  Palin's going to go over a lot better than people think.  Here are some things to think about:
•    She's very clearly anti-establishment – McCain's going to run on a maverick, throw-the-bums out strategy, which is natural for him
•    On McCain's one "establishment" stance – the Iraq war – Palin dovetails nicely; her oldest kid is about to be deployed in Iraq.  (McCain doesn't like to talk about it but he has a son in Iraq as well.)  The unapologetic Iraq stance is McCain's only hope – he can't apologize for it now.  And she strengthens this.
•    She'll be a fantastic campaigner.  Did you see her speech?  She'll do wonderfully in Dayton and Scranton and Pittsburgh and Reno, talking to rooms with a few hundred people in them.  She's very genuine.
•    She has a great life story – daughter of a school teacher and a school secretary.  Alaska native.  Successful small business owner.  Her husband is an Alaskan Indian.  (From my days in Arizona I know "Native American" is a PC word that American Indians don't like.)
•    She has 3 school-aged kids and an infant.  Her kids are adorable.
•    The Dems will hit her on experience, which will keep experience as an issue.  Wait for McCain to say, "well, Barack, there is a difference between the P and VP – you'd be great VP material, I agree…."  Seriously, if they attack her too much on this they'll look like hypocrites.  Palin's resume is very similar to Obama's, EXCEPT she started a company and is raising 5 kids.
•    The VP doesn't matter much anyway.
•    And the big one:  12 hours after giving one of the best political speeches of all time, Obama has to be furious that no one's talking about his speech anymore.  It's going to be Palin Palin Palin for the next few days.  McCain has totally seized the spotlight.

Go to youtube and search "Palin" and watch her speeches – I haven't seen a bad one yet.

I'm not saying she's perfect.  But she's not the disaster many people are saying.  Given that the right wing wouldn't allow Lieberman (which I think would have been McCain's best pick), I don't know who else was out there.  Romney, Pawlenty, Portman, etc, would have all been disasters.

And five minutes later he sent a follow-up email:

It's already starting – Michelle Malkin:  "I'd rather have someone with 2 years of national experience a heartbeat away from the Presidency than in the Presidency itself."

It's beautiful, really – a judo strategy if you will.  Guarantees people are going to talk about experience the entire time, and puts Obama on the defensive when he tries to attack.

Other thoughts: itsabigrock said, "she has five kids, one of whom has down syndrome, how is it better for her family for her to be vice president?"

Comments

[rhipowered.livejournal.com]

Uh, beg to differ from Middle America. Basically, Ian's got a few rhetorical problems:
- The fact that she IS establishment with the pro-life, creationism, screw the environment, woot Iraq stuff. Bush type establishment. It may play well in Fairbanks, but it makes McCain's 'maverick' ad campaign seem like ever so much bullshit. It certainly doesn't draw many independents.
- I don't know Ian's background, but living here, I don't think that she's going to be quite so impressive. Namely because she's from ALASKA. Common perception of Alaska here in the Midwest is that it is entirely the back of beyond. She may play well once she speaks, but initial response is dubious.
- They can't play her as anti-corruption while there's still a pending investigation into her behavior, because they know the Dems would jump on it.
- Palin's resume is nothing like Obama's. A small business owner is not equivocal to community organizing.

[sk8eeyore.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I never really thought for a second she'd do much for disaffected Clinton supporters; but I can say that as one of those reluctant McCain supporters to whom this choice was likely meant to appeal, it *did* serve the purpose of actually energizing me to care. I even confess to bouncing for joy about the five kids including a baby with Down's thing -- though as I think more about it, I'm definitely ambivalent about how pro-her-family this move is. Still? As someone who desires both a large family and a professional career and is subject to frequent despair as to the feasibility of making them gel, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that seeing someone like Palin gets to me in a very particular way.

Still looking at issues to figure out whether I can put myself down whole-heartedly as a supporter. Definitely not here to argue issues. Just offering my perspective from the young, quirky, politically confused evangelicals' camp.

[kurukami.livejournal.com]

Except that...

(a) Obama's got four years of experience in national politics, plus eight years prior to that as an Illinois State Senator, whereas Palin has less than two years experience as a state governor, before which she was mayor to a town of a mere eight thousand people,
(b) what her parents did isn't of as much interest to me as what she has done, and what she's done (one-time sports journalist, commercial fisherwoman, small-town city councilwoman and mayor, then a brief stint as governor) does not entirely inspire me as to her competence in national politics, and
(c) VP actually does matter when you're talking about a candidate who's not only the most elderly ever to run for the office, but who we know is already prone to cancer.

And that's putting aside all of the uproar over her dismissing widely respected Public Commissioner Monegan (allegedly because of his refusal to fire her sister's ex-husband) and replacing him with a reprimanded sexual harasser.

[sangerin.livejournal.com]

I'd say more, but have to get ready for church. The thing that initially jumps out at me from Ian's email is actually his assertion that "from his experiences in Arizona, he knows that indigenous Americans don't like to be called "Native Americans"." Sorry, but I'm not going to take that sort of generalisation: I've been burnt by it before. Various people are okay with various terms (I'm okay with being called - and calling myself - a whitefella, but I know others who really hate it.) And I so don't think that one can automatically translate "experience in Arizona" to Alaska.

Slightly OT, I know, but that really got to me.